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02/06/2012 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Chicago Bulls are in the midst of a nine-game road trip and will continue the lengthy trek tonight against the New Jersey Nets.
Chicago improved to 3-2 thus far on the road swing following Saturday's 113-90 victory at Milwaukee behind Derrick Rose's 26 points and 13 assists. Rose scored 16 of his team's first 18 points and is averaging 29.8 points over his last six contests. He has also scored 30 or more points four times in that span for the Central Division-leading Bulls, who improved to 11-5 as the guest and won for the 13th time in its last 17 tries. Chicago leads the NBA in road wins with 11 and sports the East's best overall record at 20-6.
"I was just taking what they were giving me," Rose said of the quick start. "They were giving me my shot, I was taking it and thank god tonight they were going in."
Luol Deng returned from a seven-game absence due to a wrist injury to post 21 points and nine rebounds. Kyle Korver and Joakim Noah finished with 18 and 14 points, respectively, in the win. The Bulls shot 53.3 percent for the game and are 10-0 this season when reaching the century mark in scoring. Fourteen of Chicago's 20 wins this season have been by 10-plus points.
The Bulls' nine-game road trip is the longest since the 1992-93 season, when they went 6-3 on a nine-game trek. In 1974-75, Chicago played a team-record 11 straight games away from home (7-4). It will also make stops in New Orleans, Charlotte and Boston.
Chicago's 20-6 start to the season is the fourth-best in franchise history after 26 games. Chicago opened 23-2 in 1995-96, 22-3 in 1996-97 and 21-4 in 1991-92.
New Jersey lost at New York on Saturday, dropping a 99-92 decision even though Deron Williams did all he could with 21 points and 11 assists. Kris Humphries added 20 points and 12 rebounds and Jordan Farmar scored 19 off the bench for the Nets, losers in two straight and four of five games. New Jersey had a 12- point lead late in the first quarter before collapsing.
Nets coach Avery Johnson put a boxing spin on the outcome afterwards.
"They swung last," he said of the Knicks, "and kind of knocked us out."
Johnson has used 12 different starting lineups in the first 25 games this season. The Nets are tied with Toronto for last in the Atlantic Division and will play two in a row and four of the next five games at home. They own a 3-7 record in Newark, NJ this season and are just 6-12 versus the East.
Williams is averaging 26.5 points, 5.1 rebounds and 10.3 assists in New Jersey's eight wins this season, while Humphries posted his 10th double-double of the season. He is averaging a double-double with 13.5 points and 10.5 rebounds per game.
New Jersey lost the first meeting with Chicago by a 110-95 score on Jan. 23 at the United Center. Rose had missed the previous four games with a toe sprain and recorded 22 points and eight assists. Rose, who is probable for Monday with a sore back, is averaging 18.7 points and 6.3 assists in 12 career games against the Nets.
The Bulls have won three in a row over the Nets, but are just 2-16 in their past 18 trips to the Garden State.
<< Clippers resume road trip in Orlando
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - A possible trade destination for Dwight Howard is Los
Angeles with the revamped Clippers. For now, however, Howard is still property
of the Orlando Magic, who will open a three-game homestand tonight versus
the Clippers at Am
<< Pachuca erases three-goal deficit to stun Toluca
Toluca, Mexico (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Mauro Cejas converted a penalty kick in the
90th minute as Pachuca rallied from three goals behind to stun Toluca, 4-3, on
Sunday in Mexico's Clausura.
Toluca built a three-goal lead after 17 minutes on an
<< Howard-less Red Wings aim for win in Phoenix
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Not having their starting goaltender over the weekend did
little to help Detroit shake off its road issues. However, a trip to Phoenix
just might do the trick.
The Red Wings look to record a sweep of their season series wi
<< Flames try for rare win in Anaheim
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Calgary Flames took care of business at home on Friday
before hitting the road for a few games. The task gets a little daunting right
off the bat tonight as they aim for their first victory against the Ducks at
Anaheim in
Stoudemire deals with tragedy as Knicks host Jazz >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Utah Jazz haven't fared so well lately in the Big Apple
and hope to reverse those fortunes tonight against a shorthanded New York
Knicks team at historic Madison Square Garden.
Amare Stoudemire will miss tonight's game
Raptors seek another win over Wizards >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Toronto Raptors and Washington Wizards meet for the
second time in four nights this evening, as the two teams do battle at the
Verizon Center this evening.
These two bottom feeders met on Friday in Toronto and Leandro
Stoudemire to miss Monday's game after death of brother >>
New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - New York Knicks forward Amare Stoudemire will
miss Monday's home game against Utah after the death of his brother.
"Our thoughts and prayers go out to the Stoudemire family for their loss," the
Knicks said on
O's deal Guthrie to Rox for Hammel and Lindstrom >>
Baltimore, MD (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Baltimore Orioles have traded pitcher
Jeremy Guthrie to the Colorado Rockies in exchange for pitchers Jason Hammel
and Matt Lindstrom.
Guthrie was Baltimore's opening day starter in 2011 and pos
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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